Here’s your humor of the day: AppleInsider breathlessly reports that “High school teens say they’ll plunk down $500 for iPhone.” And MacUser reported similarly, “High schoolers willing to pay $500 for an iPhone.”
In fact, the story is exactly the opposite.
AppleInsider bases that headline on a survey by PiperJaffray of “approximately 500 high school students at 11 different institutions across the country, asking each about their interest and buying patterns in portable digital audio and online music.”
According to that, a quarter of those teens…
Wait, a quarter? From that you get “High school teens say…”? Well, I guess it’s technically correct; some teens say they’ll buy the iPhone. It happens to be a vast minority, and hardly justifies the headline.
Anyway, a quarter of those teens say they plan…
Wait a second. The survey doesn’t say those 25 percent plan to buy anything. It says those teens said Yes when asked “Would you buy a cellphone/iPod combo (iPhone) for $500?” (Emphasis mine.)
“Would you” and “Will you” are two very different things.
As MacUser points out, “This is a pretty substantial number for high school students who probably can’t even afford the iPhone (or have parents who don’t want to cough up the cash).” In other words, a quarter of the students said they would buy it, whether or not they could pay for it. I.e., the number means nothing.
But let’s say I’m splitting hairs. There’s another stat that Apple apologists will probably gloss over. See, in its last survey of the same sort, PiperJaffray found that 74 percent of teens “Would Consider Buying a Cell Phone That Is An iPod.”
In other words, from the fall 2006 survey to the spring 2007 survey, the percentage of teens who said they’d buy a cellphone/iPod combo fell from 74 percent to 25 percent.
Perhaps the idea sounded better when it didn’t cost $500 and didn’t require a two-year Cingular commitment. Or maybe they weren’t impressed by the mediocre camera and video, the lack of broadband support, the lack of memory expansion possibilities, the inability to use it one-handed… you get the idea.
Teens are pretty savvy when it comes to shelling out $500 for anything, I suspect.
The Fray
Emily says:
Chris, you don’t have to feel guilty around Andrew the hype-master.;-) Surveys are too poorly worded in most cases to be taken seriously.
I’m a reasonable candidate for switching to an iPhone. I’ve had a Blackberry for a few years and I enjoy the features, including the proper keyboard, and would not opt for a razor thin fashion model without the capabilities of the Blackberry. I also like my iPod and wouldn’t switch to anything I’ve seen from other companies. I have three Apple computers as well as the ubiquitous Windows box. An iPhone would integrate nicely into my life.
Except for one deal-breaking problem. Cingular. There is no way in hell I would switch to a voice/data plan that costs over one and one half times as much as my equivalent TMobile plan. By the time the dust settles from the iPhone introduction, it’ll be $50, with a contract, just like any other high end cellphone. So, the monthly bill is all that matters in the long term. Ask the carriers if you don’t understand how that works.
Besides, Apple has a knack for developing products that successfully target a group willing to pay the price of entry. I don’t think that is going to change.
Chris says:
Thanks, Andrew. I am one of those guilty of hyping up those survey results. But thanks to your post I’ve clarified things on my blog.